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Commercial Real Estate Could Be Next Economic Threat

December 9th, 2009 at 12:34pm Under Economy Report

This is the VOA Special English Economics Report.

The American housing collapse was a major cause of the recession. The housing market is showing new life after three years of falling prices and too much supply. But now there are worries that banks could face big losses next on business properties.

Better times: Workers build a Manhattan high-rise in 2006. Now, lending has tightened.

For example, one effect of a weak economy is less demand for office space. As a result, property owners earn less and charge less in rent. This puts pressure especially on owners who borrowed a lot money.

Easy credit helped fuel an explosion of development.  The market hit a high point in two thousand seven.

Now, late payments are growing. Almost three percent of commercial mortgages were reported at least ninety days late between April and June. That was double a year earlier.

One major lender lost more than a billion and a half dollars in the second quarter. Capmark Financial Group said it might seek bankruptcy protection from its creditors. Medium and small banks also face a growing risk.

Banks hold one and a half of the three and a half trillion dollars in debt that supports the commercial real estate market. Housing debt is much higher. Still, around two trillion dollars in commercial mortgages are expected to come due for payment within the next five years.

Commercial properties face two serious problems. One is falling prices — down by one-fourth since two thousand seven. The other is refinancing.

Most commercial real estate loans have terms of ten years or less. They often end with a large payment, a balloon payment, which owners usually refinance. But lower property values and tighter lending requirements mean a harder time getting new loans.

One way to make capital available for new loans is to sell mortgage-backed securities. But since last year there has been little activity in the seven hundred fifty billion dollar market for commercial mortgage securities.  The Federal Reserve recently extended into next year a loan program designed to get investors to buy more securities like these.

The United States is not alone. Commercial rents in Moscow, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mumbai have fallen thirty percent or more.

American housing sales, though, have improved in recent months, helped by lower prices and a tax credit for first-time buyers. The S&P/Case-Shiller national index of home prices rose in April, May and June. That was the first three-month increase in three years.

And that’s the VOA Special English Economics Report, written by Mario Ritter. I’m Steve Ember.

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So Where Are the Jobs?

December 1st, 2009 at 12:16pm Under Education report

This is the VOA Special English Economics Report.

America’s economy has started to grow again. Now what about jobs?

The government says productivity jumped in July, August and September. That meant companies produced more with fewer workers. Also, new claims for unemployment aid fell last week to the lowest number since January.

People waiting in line at a job fair in Livonia, Michigan

But eight million jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December of two thousand seven.

Jack Strauss at Saint Louis University in Missouri says recent recoveries have been slow to create jobs.

JACK STRAUSS: “Historically, during our last two recessions in ninety-one and two thousand one it’s taken twenty-three months in ninety-one and about thirty-six months, three years, in our last recession in two thousand one for the United States to regain the jobs lost in the recession.”

Experts debate the reason for these so-called jobless recoveries. But Professor Strauss says a banking crisis is especially hard to recover from, because there is less money to lend to support growth. Banks have been holding bigger safety reserves.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept its target rate near zero for overnight loans between banks. The central bank said levels are likely to remain “exceptionally low … for an extended period.”

Low interest rates and growing federal deficits have weakened the dollar. But that also lowers the price of American exports, which could help drive job creation. Yet where exactly will future jobs come from?

Investor Warren Buffet says America’s “future prosperity” depends on its rail system. On Tuesday his Berkshire Hathaway company agreed to buy the nation’s second-largest railroad, the Burlington Northern Santa Fe. The forty-four billion dollar deal is Berkshire’s biggest ever.

The Obama administration is also putting money into transportation to speed recovery. A program that paid Americans to buy new vehicles with higher fuel economy lifted sales for automakers. Ford just reported a profit of almost a billion dollars for July through September.

A second government program — a tax credit for first-time home buyers — has helped the housing market. These two programs fueled a lot of the recent economic growth.

But economist Jack Strauss says credit conditions threaten the main engine of job growth since two thousand one — small businesses.

This week, CIT, a lender to small and medium sized businesses, sought bankruptcy protection from its creditors so it can reorganize. Taxpayers will likely lose more than two billion dollars in federal rescue money.

And that’s the VOA Special English Economics Report, available online at voaspecialenglish.com. I’m Mario Ritter.

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