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15 Months Out of Recession, but Not Feeling Like It

November 16th, 2010 at 01:26am Under Economy Report

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This is the VOA Special English Economics Report.

Businesses are still slow to hire and unemployment remains near ten percent. But an economic research group reported this week that the recession in the United States ended in June of last year.

It was the longest since the nineteen thirties.

James Stock is on the committee that dates the rises and falls of the business cycle for the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Harvard professor says this recession was in some ways a lot like others since World War Two.

JAMES STOCK: “I think what I’ve been struck by is how these numbers basically look like all the other recessions we’ve had in the postwar period.”

But one difference was the length — eighteen months. Many recessions since the nineteen forties lasted less than a year.

Another difference was the severity. The economy shrank by more than four percent. About eight million people lost their jobs.

Professor Stock thinks job growth is likely to increase in the coming months based on current levels of productivity.

JAMES STOCK: “I think that we are at a point right now where productivity has increased so much that for output to continue to grow, we will be seeing increases in hiring.”

Some economic signs have improved. Manufacturing, industrial production and consumer spending have made small gains. But a Labor Department report shows that new claims for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly last week.

On Monday, President Obama took questions at a meeting shown on CNBC television. One questioner wondered if today’s young Americans still could hope for a good life.

QUESTIONER: “What I’m really hoping to hear from you is several concrete steps that you’re going to take moving forward that will be able to re-ignite my generation, re-ignite the youth who are beset by student loans. And I really want to know, is the American Dream dead for me?”

BARRACK OBAMA: “Absolutely not. Look, we still have the best universities in the world. We’ve got the most dynamic private sector in the world. We’ve got the most productive workers in the world. There is not a country in the world that would not want to change places with us.”

But the economy could change the balance of power in Congress in the November elections.

Critics say the president’s economic stimulus programs have only put the country deeper in debt. Economists disagree about the extent to which the spending has helped. But many agree that the president’s policies avoided a worse situation.

Or, as Mr. Obama put it at the United Nations on Thursday: “The global economy has been pulled back from the brink of a depression.”

In Washington, central bank policy makers said inflation remains low. In fact, they said it may be too low to support their aims for price and wage stability.

And, Lawrence Summers, director of the president’s National Economic Council, said he will leave at the end of the year to return to Harvard University.

And that’s the VOA Special English Economics Report, written by Mario Ritter. I’m Steve Ember.

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US Colleges Set Enrollment Record

January 13th, 2010 at 08:12am Under Education report

This is the VOA Special English Education Report.

College enrollment has reached an all-time high in the United States. About forty percent of all eighteen- to twenty-four-year-olds — or almost eleven and a half million — were in school in October of last year.

A new report says both numbers are record highs. Richard Fry at the Pew Research Center points to a number of reasons.

Standing room only: A crowded classroom at California State University East Bay in Hayward

RICHARD FRY: “The number of young adults that have finished high school is also now at a record all-time high. Almost eighty-five percent of America’s young adults have finished high school. That means they’re college eligible. So part of the reason college enrollments are at an all-time high is because the pool of youth that’s eligible to go to college is also at an all-time high.”

Another reason for the enrollment increase: the recession. The unemployment rate reached a twenty-six year high in October. The economic downturn has hit young adults especially hard. Richard Fry says their job-holding rate is almost at the lowest point in nearly fifty years.

In a poor job market, many people turn to higher education, especially at two-year colleges. These schools, known as community colleges, have had the greatest enrollment increase. They offer professional training and traditionally cost a lot less than programs at four-year schools.

But experts say the recession has not cut enrollment in four-year programs, even with their higher — sometimes much higher — costs. The Chronicle of Higher Education says at least fifty-eight private colleges now charge fifty thousand dollars or more a year.

Lately there have been accusations that some private, competitive liberal arts colleges are trying to avoid being seen as “too female.” Critics say that as a result these schools are discriminating against women and admitting less qualified men.

In August the United States Commission on Civil Rights opened an investigation. Spokeswoman Lenore Ostrowsky says the purpose is to identify if discrimination is taking place in schools.

But she adds that there may be lots of reasons why more women apply to colleges, and why colleges admit more women. The Census Bureau says fifty-four percent of full time students at two- and four-year colleges last year were female.

Federal law bars sex discrimination at any school that receives federal money. Most schools do in one way or another. However, the law does not bar sex discrimination in admissions at private undergraduate schools, only public ones.

The commission does not have enforcement powers, but it can suggest changes in the law. A report could take six months to a year.

And that’s the VOA Special English Education Report, written by June Simms. Transcripts and podcasts can be found at voaspecialenglish.com. I’m Jim Tedder.

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